HARGA MINYAK BEPOTENSI SENTUH US$ 63 PER BAREL DI AKHIR TAHUN


Semakin jelasnya perkembangan negosiasi perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat (AS) dengan China, menjadi sinyal positif bagi pergerakan harga minyak global. Terang saja, akhir pekan lalu harga minyak berhasil menembus level US$ 57 per barel dan diperkirakan bisa menyentukh level tertinggi di akhir tahun US$ 63 per barel.

Mengutip Bloomberg, pergerakan harga minyak global di akhir pekan tercatat sempat koreksi 1,29% ke level US$ 56,41 per barel. Untungnya pada penutupan perdagangan, harga minyak berhasil kembali 0,16% ke level US$ 57,24 per barel.

Sentimen utama penguatan harga minyak datang dari pernyataan pemerintah China kepada AS yang mengatakan bakal menghapus seluruh tarif impor barang Negeri Paman Sam ke Negeri Tirai Bambu tersebut. Pernyataan tersebut tentunya disambut positif oleh pelaku pasar, sekaligus mengurangi kekhawatiran pasar terhadap kondisi perang dagang. Diharapkan, dengan sinyalemen positif ini akan berdampak positif bagi meningkatnya permintaan minyak. Mengingat, masalah ekonomi global asalnya dari masalah perang dagang AS dan China.

Alasan pelambatan harga minyak selama ini lantaran pertumbuhan ekonomi global diramalkan lesu, sebagaimana dengan perkiraan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) dan Bank Dunia (World Bank). Adapun sumbu dari lesunya ekonomi global, juga diyakini berasal perselisihan dagang antara AS dan China yang sudah berlangsung dari tahun lalu.

Untuk itu, ke depan apakah harga minyak bisa menembus level US$ 58 per barel menjadi tantangan tersendiri, untuk kemudian bisa melaju menembus level US$ 60 per barel. Potensi tersebut memungkinkan terjadi, jika Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) memutuskan untuk memangkas produksi minyak lebih dalam di pertemuan Desember 2019 mendatang.

Tanpa ada kejelasan nasib produksi minyak dari OPEC, harga minyak cenderung masih akan bergerak pada rentang US$ 50 per barel hingga US$ 55 per barel. Namun, jika OPEC memberikan kepastian akan memangkas produksi minyak dari level saat ini 1,2 juta barel per hari, itu bisa menjadi katalis positif bagi pasar.

Adapun level harga wajar yang mungkin dicapai yakni US$ 60 per barel, dengan catatan kesepakatan dagang antara AS dengan China benar-benar teralisasi tahun ini. Mengingat kekhawatiran pasar masih tetap ada, berkaca dari karakter AS yang kerap berubah-ubah sikap dan memungkinkan melakukan perubahan kesepakatan di detik-detik terakhir. Alhasil, pelaku pasar cenderung masih mencermati secara ketat kelangsungan negosiasi perang dagang AS dan China. Meskipun begitu, secara teknikal harga minyak ada potensi untuk mengalami bullish.


sumber : https://vlsindonesia.com/harga-minyak-bepotensi-sentuh-us-63-per-barel-di-akhir-tahun/

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