Alasan OPEC Pangkas Pasokan Minyak Dunia hingga 2020


OPEC sepakat untuk memperpanjang pengurangan pasokan minyak hingga Maret 2020, tiga sumber OPEC mengatakan, ketika anggota kelompok itu mengatasi perbedaan mereka untuk menopang harga minyak mentah di tengah melemahnya ekonomi global dan melonjaknya produksi minyak Amerika Serikat (AS).

Langkah ini kemungkinan akan membuat marah Presiden AS Donald Trump, yang telah menuntut pemimpin OPEC Arab Saudi memasok lebih banyak minyak dan membantu mengurangi harga di stasiun pengisian bahan bakar minyak jika Riyadh menginginkan dukungan militer AS dalam perselisihannya dengan saingan berat Iran.

Harga patokan minyak mentah Brent telah naik lebih dari 25% tahun ini setelah Gedung Putih memperketat sanksi terhadap anggota OPEC, Venezuela dan Iran, memangkas ekspor minyak mereka. Demikian dikutip Antaranews, Jakarta, Selasa (2/7/2019).

OPEC dan sekutunya yang dipimpin oleh Rusia telah mengurangi produksi minyak sejak 2017 untuk mencegah penurunan harga di tengah melonjaknya produksi minyak AS, yang telah menyusul Rusia dan Arab Saudi sebagai produsen utama dunia. Kekhawatiran tentang melemahnya permintaan global sebagai akibat dari pertengkaran perdagangan AS-China telah menambah tantangan yang dihadapi oleh 14 negara Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC).

“Arab Saudi melakukan yang terbaik untuk mencapai harga minyak pada USD70 per barel meskipun apa yang diinginkan Trump. Tapi mereka belum mencapai itu, sekalipun dengan ekspor minyak Iran dan Venezuela turun. Dan alasannya adalah lemahnya permintaan dan pertumbuhan minyak serpih AS,” kata Gary Ross.

Amerika Serikat, juga konsumen minyak terbesar di dunia, bukan anggota OPEC, juga tidak berpartisipasi dalam pakta pasokan. Lonjakan harga minyak mungkin mengarah ke bensin yang lebih mahal, masalah utama bagi Trump saat ia berusaha terpilih kembali tahun depan. Brent awalnya naik sebanyak USD2 pada Senin (1/7) menuju USD67 per barel karena para pedagang mengutip tekad OPEC untuk mengekang produksi. Kemudian beringsut turun menjadi diperdagangkan di bawah USD65.

Risiko Geopolitik

Pertemuan OPEC pada Senin (1/7) akan diikuti oleh pembicaraan dengan Rusia dan sekutu lainnya, sebuah kelompok yang dikenal sebagai OPEC+, pada Selasa waktu setempat.

Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin mengatakan pada Sabtu (29/6) bahwa dia telah setuju dengan Arab Saudi untuk memperpanjang pengurangan produksi yang ada sebesar 1,2 juta barel per hari, atau 1,2 persen dari permintaan global, enam hingga sembilan bulan – hingga Desember 2019 atau Maret 2020.

Harga minyak bisa terhenti karena pelambatan ekonomi global menekan permintaan, dan minyak AS membanjiri pasar, sebuah jajak pendapat terhadap para analis oleh Reuters menemukan. “Saya pikir sembilan bulan memberi kami landasan yang cukup untuk menunggu pasar seimbang,” kata Menteri Energi Saudi Khalid al-Falih.

Dia mengatakan Arab Saudi akan terus mengurangi pasokan ke pelanggan pada Juli. “Alasan untuk memperpanjang kesepakatan dengan sembilan bulan, bukan enam adalah untuk memastikan pasar bahwa kesepakatan akan tetap ada melalui periode permintaan lemah musiman pada kuartal pertama 2020,” kata Amrita Sen, salah satu pendiri Energy Aspects.

Pertemuan pada Senin (1/7) berada di jam kelima ketika para menteri membahas piagam untuk kerja sama jangka panjang dengan non-OPEC, kata sumber OPEC, menambahkan bahwa Iran dan Arab Saudi berdebat tentang isi draf.

Pada Senin (1/7), Iran mengkritik Arab Saudi karena membuat keputusan mengenai kebijakan OPEC secara sepihak dengan Rusia, mengatakan tindakan seperti itu adalah tantangan utama bagi kelangsungan organisasi. Ekspor Iran anjlok menjadi 0,3 juta barel per hari pada Juni dari sebanyak 2,5 juta barel per hari pada April 2018 karena sanksi baru Washington.

Sanksi tersebut menempatkan Iran di bawah tekanan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Bahkan pada 2012, ketika Uni Eropa bergabung dengan sanksi AS terhadap Teheran, ekspor negara itu mencapai sekitar satu juta barel per hari. Minyak mewakili bagian terbesar dari pendapatan anggaran Iran.

Washington mengatakan ingin mengubah apa yang disebutnya rezim “korup” di Teheran. Iran mengecam sanksi itu sebagai ilegal dan mengatakan Gedung Putih dijalankan oleh orang-orang “terbelakang mental”.

“Ketegangan yang memburuk antara AS dan Iran menambah potensi gejolak harga minyak yang bisa menjadi rumit bagi anggota OPEC untuk dikelola,” kata Ann-Louise Hittle, wakil presiden, minyak makro.


Sumber : https://vlsindonesia.com/alasan-opec-pangkas-pasokan-minyak-dunia-hingga-2020/


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